Rocky on DVD: My Latest Bad Beat

About a month ago, I purchased a five-disc DVD set of the Rocky movies. As my attourney Kurt cautioned me, this went directly against my third law of DVD purchasing: "people who buy DVDs of movies they haven't seen yet, are completely retarded."

You see, I had only seen four of the five pictures; I had not yet seen Rocky V, generally considered the worst of the bunch, and specifically considered so by Kurt. (Not that his opinion counted for much, since he -- to this day -- refuses to concede the extreme awesomeness of the third and best Rocky film.)

I proceeded to explain to Kurt, using a series of complicated algebraic equations, that the Rocky set had good odds. I had an opportunity to purchase the set for $41, whereas getting Rockys I-IV individually would have cost about $38. That means I could get the fifth movie for just an extra $3, which represented a savings of $6 or about 65% (in the event that I later saw Rocky V, realized I liked it too and needed it to round out my Rocky collection, and purchased it at full price). Plus, I would get the shiny red packaging!

Now, most people hate Rocky V. IMDB rates it at under 4 stars out of 10, which, for IMDB, is pretty bad. On the other hand, most people don't like Rocky II-IV either, and I thought those movies were freaking awesome. I figured that, to buy the set, I would need around a 30% chance of liking Rocky V (when factoring in the shiny packaging), and that my actual chances of liking Rocky V were around 35%. Therefore, I couldn't afford not to.

As it turns out, I only about 35% liked Rocky V, which is ironic (maybe?). It wasn't as awful as I had been led to believe. But that's beyond the point. In my in-depth calculations, I neglected one important factor:

The heretofore-unknown six-disc Rocky Anthology that will be released in December.

Arg. Kurt, you may take this moment to laugh at me as a hang my head in sad shame. In my defense, if I had considered this possibility at the time, I would have given it only a 2% possibility of occuring. That 2% would have applied to the overall set, though, and would have meant I would need around a 39% chance of liking Rocky V to make the set a good buy. But even then I still would have bought the set, because I'm stubborn.

Beaten on the river...by Rocky.