November 1, 2004

My prediction? Pain.

Well, it's just about Zero Hour, and I'm in heavily-Republican Jacksonville, Florida, waiting to cast my vote tomorrow. I plan to get up super-early, vote, and drive like hell. Then I'll watch the whole debacle on my honkin'-sized television with a good bottle of wine (or three) at my side.

I like to make predictions that later come true, so that I can hold it over everyone afterwards. That said, I predict that John Kerry will win tomorrow, and that it won't be as close as people think it will (either popular-vote-wise OR electoral-college-wise). I think the minor glitches in polling -- each of which seems to indicate an undue Bush-ward slant in the polls -- add up to a more decisive Kerry lead than anyone realizes.

Maybe I'm just saying that because most pollsters would consider me an unlikely voter, and because they wouldn't reach me anyway since I have no landline phone -- but you heard it here first. Kerry will win tomorrow, and I will rub it in all of your faces. And if you don't think I'm that kind of guy, well -- you just don't know me well enough.

Andrew - 9:59 PM
Comments

Actually, I agree. And you know I'm not generally optimistic about this sort of thing... but I agree that the cell-phone thing has probably skewed the polls by more than they're expecting. We shall see.

James F - Nov 1, 2004 - 10:09 PM

Yeah, you stole my prediction. Although, I am now concerned about Ohio. Bad polls today, most of the polling imperfections don't help as much there, and its only going to rain in Democratic strongholds. . .

Hopefully a moot point if Kerry wins FL.

kk - Nov 1, 2004 - 10:47 PM

I'm afraid. Very Very afraid. I just voted in a very heavily republican state though. I hope you're right. I'll be with ya there with my bottle of Jack.

On a funny note. I just wrote Pup in for district attorney. It seems the guy (R) was running unopposed. Watch out, Pup's the new Law in town!

Pup - Nov 2, 2004 - 9:30 AM

I'm afraid I disagree, unhappily. My personal preferences aside (way, way aside) I think the popular vote will be VERY close and probably won by Kerry, but I think Bush will win the electoral vote by about a dozen.

Wherever you heard it first, you heard it here last.

Big Pinz - Nov 2, 2004 - 10:45 AM

The new Zogby projection is very positive.

kk - Nov 2, 2004 - 5:28 PM